From:William Overholt dated July 5th
I also have great respect for Bernard Gordon's authoritative work on regionalism, and I agree that there is no officially stated ASEAN view.However, these trade issues are debated primarily within a limited elite of the old ASEAN 6 at a series of meetings sponsored by various think tanks, universities, governments, and ongoing forums.The key people hold or have held high positions in their governments and within a not-too-wide variation they speak for their countries.They are essentially an expanded version of the old Eminent Persons Group.If one attends these meetings, there is a clear working consensus on a number of points.By working consensus I don't mean perfect agreement but rather a sufficient level of agreement that those who disagree would likely defer if push came to shove: --They prefer the Chinese multilateral free trade approach to the Japanese spider web of FTAs.This part has of course been officially endorsed by ASEAN as a group.In fact, China just joined an ASEAN proposal rather than vice versa and ASEAN encouraged it to do so.--They are uncomfortable being small countries in a trade region with one huge giant, namely China. --They seek to use the trade arrangement along with currency arrangements to build a regional organization that could counterbalance US/IMF pressure in events like the 1997 Asian crisis.Therefore they do not want the U.S. in.Singapore disagrees, and therefore is sometimes not invited to the meetings.--Because they need somebody to counterbalance China, they want Japan in, but only if Japan will accept real trade liberalization.--Because they want the set of institutions to be broad enough to function as a counterweight to the US and the IMF, they want to be as East Asian-inclusive as possible.For this reason they also want Japan in, along with Korea and Taiwan.--For the same reason, they are very blunt in private in telling the Australians and New Zealanders that they will never be fully accepted into either the trade or the currency arrangements because they are viewed as cats' paws for the Americans.This is somewhat unfair to the Kiwis, but it is strongly felt in ASEAN.--The principal barrier to their ambitions is Japanese and Korean agricultural protectionism and more generally Japanese unwillingness to accept true free trade.There are constant informal efforts to work with more liberal interests in Japan to move Japan on these issues, and there is serious consideration even in China of at least temporarily accommodating some Japanese protectionism in order to get Japan on board.
--Chinese objections to formally including Taiwan in some of these arrangements is also a problem, but one that ASEAN leaders are pretty confident they can circumvent. --They view it as undiplomatic to press Japan too hard too openly. --They view it as particularly undiplomatic to make public statements about their determination to create institutions that will eventually come together into a secretariat intended to counterbalance the US and the IMF.
Best regards, Bill
